Finals preview
June 23rd, 2007OMAHA, NEB. - We’re about a couple hours away from the first pitch of the Men’s College World Series Finals, which is the perfect time to breakdown the Tar Heels-Beavers matchup and pick a winner. Before I get into anything serious here’s two things to look for in tonights game:
1. How much will the extra day off benefit Oregon State? Unlike UNC, the Beavers are completely rested, having only played three games to North Carolina’s five. OSU’s rotation is set up perfectly and its bullpen is fully rested. The same cannot be said for the Tar Heels. Rob Wooten has pitched in 11 consecutive games, and showed signs of a tired arm in his last stint against Rice. If tonight’s game is decided by the bullpen, Oregon State has more rested arms to throw.
2. How effective will Alex White be? White hasn’t exactly been lights out lately, and for many isn’t probably the guy you want to see on the mound for UNC. But there isn’t a start on North Carolina’s staff that’s more rested than the freshman right-hander, so there won’t be much of an excuse if he doesn’t have his “A” stuff. The key for White will be UNC jumping out to an early lead allowing White to relax and pitch. The same thing worked for Luke Putkonen against Louisville.
And now here’s the finals breakdown.
Hitting: If there’s one area where there’s a glaring difference between the Beavers and the Tar Heels it’s offense. In almost every position, North Carolina has a superior hitter compared to whoever Oregon State throws out there. UNC boasts seven starters with a batting average greater than .300, and four of those players would lead Oregon State in that category. The Tar Heels have slugged 27 more home runs than OSU, and Beaver hitters strike out at a far higher rate than their North Carolina counterparts…..Edge: UNC
FIELDING: While Oregon State is not a squad that will beat you with its bats, the Beavers do a heck of a drop picking the ball and making plays in the field. Shortstop Darwin Barney and second baseman Joey Wong make up possibly the best double play tandem in the nation, and do a good job of robbing hits up the middle. Center fielder Chris Hopkins has great range in the outfield, and catcher Mitch Canham is about as good as it gets behind the plate………………………………………………………………..Edge: OSU
PITCHING: This one was by far the hardest area to give either North Carolina or Oregon State an edge. I even almost considered making it a wash, but that’s no fun. Both squads have good starting pitching and deep bullpens, with UNC featuring Robert Woodard, Rob Wooten and Andrew Carignan and OSU throwing Mike Stutes, Joe Paterson and Eddie Kunz. I ended up going with the Beavers, though, for two reasons. First of all, the entire OSU staff is rested having thrown in two fewer games than UNC. And second of all, while North Carolina has recently pitched real well, Oregon State has thrown well the entire postseason allowing 2.7 runs a game compered to UNC’s 5.36…………………..Edge: OSU
INTANGIBLES: For me, intangibles is always the kicker. Especially in baseball, and especially in a tight series. And to me, there isn’t a team with more guts and more will than North Carolina. The Tar Heels have proved they can win any kind of game during their run to the finals. They’ve come from behind, they’ve won by blowout, they’ve won by pitching and they’ve won close. Add in what happened last year in Omaha, and it’s hard to believe that UNC won’t be able to overcome their demons and take the title…..Edge: UNC
PREDICTION: Oregon State is built on pitching and defense, and has been able to ride those two tricks all the way to the finals. North Carolina on the other hand is a complete team. The Tar Heels can pitch it, pick it and bash it. And those bats, which are getting hot at the right time, are going to be the difference maker for UNC in two close contests with Robert Woodard recording the final out Sunday…………………………..UNC in two games
-David Ely